Factors Influencing COVID-19 Risk: Insights From Molnupiravir Exposure-Response Modeling of Clinical Outcomes.

Molnupiravir (MOV) is an oral antiviral for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in outpatient settings. This analysis investigated the relationship between ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) pharmacokinetics and clinical outcomes in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 in the phase III part of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial. Logistic regression models of the dependency of outcomes on exposures and covariates were constructed using a multistep process. Influential covariates were identified first using placebo arm data, followed by assessment of exposure-dependency in drug effect using data from both the placebo and MOV arms. The exposure-response (E-R) analysis included 1,313 participants; 630 received MOV and 683 received placebo. Baseline viral load, baseline disease severity, age, weight, viral clade, active cancer, and diabetes were identified as significant determinants of response using placebo data. Absolute measures of viral load on days 5 and 10 were strong on-treatment predictors of hospitalization. An additive area under the curve (AUC)-based maximum effect (Emax ) model with a fixed Hill coefficient of 1 best represented the exposure-dependency in drug effect and the AUC50 was estimated to be 19,900 nM hour. Patients at 800 mg achieved near maximal response, which was larger than for 200 or 400 mg. The final E-R model was externally validated and predicted that the relative reduction in hospitalization with MOV treatment would vary with patient characteristics and factors in the population. In conclusion, the E-R results support the MOV dose of 800 mg twice daily to treat COVID-19. Many patient characteristics and factors impacted outcomes beyond drug exposures.

A phase I, randomized, placebo-controlled study of molnupiravir in healthy Japanese to support special approval in Japan to treat COVID-19.

Molnupiravir (MK-4482) is an oral prodrug of the antiviral ribonucleoside analog, N-hydroxycytidine (NHC), which has activity against RNA viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We conducted a phase I safety and pharmacokinetic study of molnupiravir in healthy Japanese adult participants. A sample size larger than typically used in pharmacokinetic studies was implemented to collect additional safety data in the Japanese population to support special approval for emergency use in Japan. Single doses of molnupiravir up to 1600 mg and multiple doses of 400 and 800 mg administered every 12 h (q12h) for 5.5 days were generally well-tolerated. NHC appeared rapidly in plasma and reached maximum concentration (Cmax ), with a median time to Cmax (Tmax ) between 1.00 and 2.00 h. Area under the concentration versus time curve from zero to infinity (AUC0-inf ), area under the concentration versus time curve from zero to 12 h (AUC0-12 ), and Cmax of plasma NHC increased approximately dose proportionally. With q12h dosing, the geometric mean (GM) accumulation ratios for NHC AUC0-12 and Cmax were ~1 for 400 and 800 mg. Pharmacokinetics of NHC triphosphate (NHC-TP), the active metabolite of NHC was assessed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and also demonstrated roughly dose proportional pharmacokinetics. The GM accumulation ratios for NHC-TP AUC0-12 and Cmax were ~2.5 for 400 and 800 mg. Following administration with food, only a modest reduction (24%) in plasma NHC Cmax with comparable AUC0-inf was seen, supporting administration without regard to food.